Subproject 41+42

Evaluation of production, labor and markets

Subproject 41-42 has two main objectives:


Formal Labor Market Assessment

This objective is divided into:

  • Characterize the formal labor market in multiple dimensions;
  • Evaluate the labor market of the municipalities affected in the 2014-2018 period, with the possibility of including other years;
  • Identify and assess the biggest labor markets;
  • Assess the economically active municipal population;
  • Compare the affected municipalities with similar municipalities (control groups: municipalities with a socioeconomic, productive and demographic profile similar to those in the affected area) in the 2014-2018 period, with the possibility of including other years;
  • Develop scenarios for the labor market of the affected municipalities for the five years following the dam collapse (2019-2023);
  • Compare the labor markets of the affected municipalities with similar municipalities (control groups) in scenarios for the five years following the dam failure (2019-2023);
  • Evaluate the mitigation and repair actions performed, in execution and planned;
  • Submit a proposal for monitoring the labor market.

 

Production and Market Assessment

This objective is divided into:

  • Identify and characterize the productive structure of the affected municipalities. The focus of the studies is on formal activities;
  • Evaluate the productive structure of the affected municipalities in the 2014-2018 period, with the possibility of including other years. Highlight the structuring activities and undertakings with high participation in municipal production;
  • Present comparisons with activities or set of similar activities (control groups: municipalities with a socioeconomic, productive and demographic profile similar to those in the affected area) for the period 2014-2018;
  • Develop scenarios for productive activities in the five years following the dam failure (2019-2023);
  • Compare the productive activities of the affected municipalities with those of similar municipalities (control groups) in scenarios for the five years following the dam failure (2019-2023);
  • Evaluate the mitigation and repair actions performed, in execution and planned;
  • Submit a proposal for monitoring productive activities.


Methodological steps


1st Step: Collection and processing of primary and secondary data

2nd Step: Impact Assessment

3rd Stage: Scenario Design and Construction

4th Stage: Assessment of mitigating actions

5th Stage: Dimensions of analysis of the labor market and production structure:
analysis of the formal labor market; characterization of the formal labor market; description of individual trajectories and sectorial and occupational reconfiguration of the affected municipalities; analysis of the fluctuation in the labor market, wage bill and job creation; analysis of the relationship between formal and informal market work; analysis of the productive structure.

 

Meet the team!

Subproject 41+42 Timeline

 

 

 

Month 1 e 2 (01/2021 e 02/2021)
Month 1 a 5
Month 3, 4, 5 e 6 
Month 7 e 8
Month 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 e 9 
Month 9 e 10 (09/2021 e 10/2021)

Initial characterization of the municipalities
The first stage of the research involves the work of collecting and preparing the material in the four research sources: (i) documents; (ii) secondary databases; (iii) semi-structured interviews; and (iv) surveys. 
Specifically, it includes preliminary analysis of the secondary databases to define the control groups. It also includes the survey and organization of the theoretical framework and technical reports for document analysis. Finally, it includes the first round of interviews with key- actors in the affected municipalities to prepare the survey questionnaires. The activities of this first stage of the research will be subdivided as follows: 
● Activity 1.1: Survey, organization and classification of studies, reports and other documents that bring assessments and information about the affected municipalities to structure the corpus of the research. 
 ● Activity 1.2: Organization and treatment of the secondary databases (RAIS, CAGED, Demographic Census, Municipal Productions, Finbra, Agricultural Census, CadÚnico, ComexStat, Comtrade, Municipal Accounts, Product Input Matrix); 
● Activity 1.3: Characterization of municipalities: construction of municipal indicators and definition of criteria for choosing the municipalities of the control groups. 
● Activity 1.4: Conducting the first stage of qualitative research w/ semi-structured interviews with key actors in the municipalities reached to survey relevant questions for probing the workforce and probing companies. 
● Activity 1.5 Construction of the survey questionnaires from the initial characterization of the municipalities based on documentary analysis, secondary data and semi-structured interviews. 

Fieldwork for Survey
The fieldwork for primary data collection for the survey of the workforce and companies, conducted by the IPEAD Foundation, will be initiated after evaluation of Products 1D and 1E by the CTC and will follow the project prepared by IPEAD.

Diagnosis of the labor market and pre-disaster productive activities (2014-2018)
The third stage of the research, which will occur simultaneously with the second stage, refers to the analysis of the data collected in STAGE 1 to assess the labor market and formal productive activities of the affected regions between 2014-2018, aiming to fulfill specific objectives (a), (b) and (c) of the project. The activities of this second stage of the research will be subdivided as follows: 
● Activity 3.1: Descriptive analysis of the trajectories of the companies from the database referring to Product 1B (Georeferenced database organized for the municipalities directly and indirectly affected by the dam rupture and similar municipalities with municipal indicators of labor market and productive organization, with definition of the control groups);
● Activity 3.2: Descriptive analysis of labor market trajectories formal from the database referring to Product 1B (Georeferenced database organized for the municipalities directly and indirectly affected by the dam rupture and similar municipalities with municipal indicators of labor market and productive organization, with definition of the control groups);
● Activity 3.3: Analysis of documents regarding the labor market and productive organization, literature on impact assessment of disasters (Product 1A) and the material collected in the semi-structured interviews (Product 1C) to contextualize the trajectory of the affected municipalities. 
● Activity 3.4: Comparative analysis between trajectories of the affected municipalities and control group municipalities from the database referring to Product 1B; 

Constructing scenarios and simulations for 2019-2023
In the fourth stage of the research the primary data collected in STAGE 2 and analyzed in STAGE 3 will be used to project scenarios for the labor market and formal productive activities of the affected regions for the period 2019-2023, aiming to fulfill specific objectives (d) and (e) of the project. 
The activities of this fourth stage of the research will be subdivided as follows: 
● Activity 4.1: Analysis of trend break, break in trajectory for the post-shock period (2019-2023). 
● Activity 4.2: Estimation of indicators and variables of interest a from counterfactuals and scenarios developed based on interventions and different possible mitigating actions. 
● Activity 4.3: Construction of trends from the estimates of indicators in the different scenarios considered. 

Constructing scenarios and simulations for 2019-2023 ;
Based on the analysis developed in the secondary data research and the field research, mainly regarding the trend trajectory prior to the dam breach, the evaluation of the mitigation, remediation and monitoring actions already carried out will be developed, aiming to fulfill the specific objectives (f) and (g) of the project. This step will involve the second round of qualitative research, referring to semi-structured interviews with representatives of governmental and non-governmental institutions relevant to understanding the existing institutional capabilities to support the monitoring plan. The actions that will be evaluated will be indicated to the research by the Brumadinho Project CTC. 
● Activity 5.1: Collection, classification and qualitative analysis of material pertaining to mitigation and remediation actions. 
● Activity 5.2: Tabulation and consolidation of the data pertaining to the mitigation and remedial actions. 
● Activity 5.3: Incorporation of the data pertaining to the mitigation and remedial actions into the simulation exercises conducted Stage 4. 
Activity 5.4: Conducting technical visits with entities of interest, conditional on pandemic constraints. 
● Activity 5.5: Drafting the monitoring protocol containing monitoring indicators, verification source and assumptions. 

Review and consolidation of the Results 
The sixth stage of the project consists of reviewing material constructed a from the inputs of the project itself (secondary and primary bases), as well as material from other subprojects highlighted by the team, in agreement with the Brumadinho Project CTC, as relevant to the object of the analysis. This stage is initiated from the completion of stages 2 and 3 and involves continuous exercise of reviewing and feeding the databases. 
● Activity 6.1: Consolidation and review of partial products.  
● Activity 6.2: Preparation of deliverable material in digital format compatible with the requirements of call 41&42. 
● Activity 6.3: Preparation of outreach material in language suitable (text, image or video) lay and non-specialist audiences. 

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