Subproject 47
Assessment of the Fiscal Situation of the Affected Municipalities
Subproject 47 aims to characterize the fiscal situation of the affected municipalities before and after the collapse of dam I at the Córrego do Feijão mine to measure and analyze the evolution of municipal revenues and expenses. The estimates will contribute to subsidize remedial actions regarding the possible deterioration of fiscal and budgetary conditions in the affected municipalities.
This objective is divided into:
● Identify, characterize and assess the fiscal situation of the municipalities affected by the dam failure in the 2014-2018 period (prior to the disaster);
● Compare the fiscal situation of the affected municipalities with similar non-affected municipalities (control groups: municipalities with a similar socioeconomic, productive and demographic profile to those in the affected area) for the period 2014-2018;
● Simulating the future fiscal situation (2019-2023) of the municipalities with and without dam failure from the identification of the control group in the previous stage;
● Prospecting scenarios for the fiscal situation of the affected municipalities in the five years following the dam collapse (2019-2023);
● Compare the scenarios of the affected municipalities with scenarios of similar municipalities (control groups);
● Evaluate and propose mitigating actions executed and planned considering the partial studies. Any mitigating measures already underway should be considered;
● Assess and propose mitigating actions in the affected municipalities observing similar municipalities (control groups);
● Present a monitoring system for the fiscal situation of the affected municipalities.
Methodological Steps
1st Step: Definition of a sample of control municipalities
2nd Step: Collection of secondary-based information in official bodies
3rd Stage: Analysis of financial and fiscal indicators of municipalities
4th Step: Characterization of the control group: cluster analysis
5th Step: Econometric Revenue Forecasting Methodology and Scenario Development
Meet the team!
Subproject 47 Timeline
- Detailing the Deliverables.
- Identification and collection of secondary data to be used in the research.
- Complementary bibliographic survey on municipal public finances with an essential objective in medium and small-sized municipalities, particularly those with mineral production.
- Evaluation of the fiscal situation of the affected municipalities in the period 2014-2018; definition of the municipalities of the control group, from cluster analysis; comparison of the fiscal situation of the affected municipalities with similar municipalities (control groups) in the period 2014-2018. Original and treated databases will be attached.
- Identification and collection of the secondary data to be used in the research.
- Complementary bibliographic survey on municipal public finances with an essential objective in medium and small-sized municipalities, particularly those with mineral production.
- Evaluation of the fiscal situation of the affected municipalities in the period 2014-2018; definition of the municipalities of the control group, from cluster analysis; comparison of the fiscal situation of the affected municipalities with similar municipalities (control groups) in the period 2014-2018. Original and treated databases will be attached.
- Production of brief questionnaire for interview (face-to-face or telephone, depending on the unfolding of the pandemic) on additional doubts regarding the data obtained from the National Treasury, Minas Gerais State Court of Accounts, and Treasury Secretariat, as well as understanding the expected difficulties of collection after the dam rupture and the pandemic.
- Detailed definition of the data analysis methodology, as well as the statistical techniques to be used in the project: construction of fiscal indicators, cluster analysis for the construction of a control group of the affected municipalities (treated) and econometric models for the prediction of the fiscal situation of the municipalities.
- Complementary bibliographic survey on municipal public finances with essential purpose in medium and small municipalities, particularly those with mineral production.
- Evaluation of the fiscal situation of the affected municipalities in the period 2014-2018; definition of the municipalities of the control group, from cluster analysis; comparison of the fiscal situation of the affected municipalities with similar municipalities (control groups) in the period 2014-2018. Original and treated databases will be attached.
- Production of brief questionnaire for interview (in person or by telephone, depending on the unfolding of the pandemic) on additional doubts regarding the data obtained from the National Treasury, Court of Accounts of the State of Minas Gerais, and Treasury Secretariat, as well as understanding the expected difficulties of collection after the dam rupture and the pandemic.
- Detailed definition of the data analysis methodology, as well as the statistical techniques to be used in the project: construction of fiscal indicators, cluster analysis for the construction of a control group of the affected municipalities (treated) and econometric models for the prediction of the fiscal situation of the municipalities.
- Detailed definition of the data analysis methodology, as well as the statistical techniques to be used in the project: construction of fiscal indicators, cluster analysis for the construction of a control group of the affected (treated) municipalities and econometric models for the prediction of the fiscal situation of the municipalities.
- Elaboration of scenarios for fiscal situation of the affected municipalities in the five years following the dam breach (2019-2023), assuming no dam breach and with dam breach. Original and treated databases should be attached.
- Elaboration of scenarios for fiscal situation of the affected municipalities in the five years following the dam breach (2019-2023), assuming no dam breach and with dam breach. Original and treated databases should be attached.
- Compare the scenarios of the affected municipalities with scenarios of similar municipalities (control groups), from the analysis of the fiscal situation of the municipalities prospected in the scenarios. Original and treated databases should be attached.
- Compare the scenarios of the affected municipalities with scenarios of similar municipalities (control groups), from the analysis of the fiscal situation of the municipalities prospected in the scenarios. Original and treated databases should be attached.
- Evaluate the mitigating and reparative actions executed and planned considering the previous studies. Precisely evaluation of the budget perspectives given the disaster conditions and the macroeconomic backdrop.
- Evaluate the mitigating and reparative actions executed and planned considering the previous studies. Precisely evaluation of the budget perspectives given the disaster conditions and the macroeconomic backdrop.
- Consolidation and review of partial reports. Original and treated databases should be attached.